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Trouble With The Curve



Trouble With The Curve
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Sell in May?


In February I posted the that sell-off in January was overdone and that it was very likely that the bottom for the major equity indices had been achieved for 2016. At the time, the bear case included a number of fundamental factors: a hard landing in China, the strong U.S. dollar and domestic manufacturing weakness, falling energy prices, the current earnings recession for U.S. corporations, and prospective Fed rate hikes. Pundit recession predictions had become the norm, corporate spreads were at post-crisis highs, volatility was elevated, and equity indices across the globe were falling. Indeed, the market was, at the very least, ripe for an over-sold bounce.

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