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THE UNITED STATES IS BECOMING MORE NORMAL



The United States is Normal
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Forward projections issued by Federal Reserve members after the June meeting sparked broad criticism for its “hawkish” guidance. The “dot-plot” was revised from an expected three rate hikes in 2018 to four. Lost in all of the postannouncement commentary was the fact that only one voting member adjusted their baseline forecast, which was enough to push the median projection higher. Headlines focused on the “looming dollar crisis,” the “vulnerability of Emerging Markets to a rising dollar”, and of course, potential for “imminent yield curve inversion” in the United States.

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