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The U.S. Treasury Auction- Who Is Showing Up?

The U.S. Treasury Auction- Who Is Showing Up
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In a prior perspective piece entitled “International Reserves – Savings gluts can last only so long,” we laid out the foundation for higher interest rates in the United States based on the depletion of foreign FX reserves. Global reserves turned negative on a year-over-year basis in the middle of 2015 (blue-line in the chart below). In spite of this and the strong correlation of foreign treasury holdings (red-line), ten-year treasury yields have remained stubbornly low. Many market pundits have theorized that central bank selling pressure in treasuries will be offset by a “risk-off” trade domestically.

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