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Everyone has heard the adage that “the trend is your friend.” It always amazes me how, despite the historical evidence supporting this principle, human nature requires that we embark on a never-ending quest to pick tops – to find divergences and indicators that support the notion that the trend is “about to change.” This speaks to two elements of human nature, I think. One, we are risk-averse, and the fear of losing money or “buying the top” drives investment strategy. And two, humanity has an inherent need to be “right” – to be the prognosticator that “called the top.”

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