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In our last newsletter we wrote, “although the Federal Reserve will pause and continue to be data dependent, unlike some of his predecessors, Jay Powell will continue to formulate policy based on the goings-on of Main Street. The liquidity flow from Wall Street to Main Street will continue, and as a result, the Fed will continue with QT and be more hawkish than the market will like.” While future Fed action is never certain, the statements and musings from Fed governors since the beginning of the year have been considerably more dovish than we expected and force us to reconsider Powell and his monetary doctrine.

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