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IS THE CONSUMER BLINKING?

  • Scott Carmack
  • May 29, 2017
  • 1 min read

Updated: Mar 11, 2024




Last year we viewed the markets in the context of excessive pessimism due to geo-political risk against the backdrop of a strengthening U.S. consumer. The commodity crash, Brexit, as well as the upcoming election had resulted in palpable risk asset volatility and valuations that we viewed as attractive. Much has changed over the last twelve months, most notably valuations and investor sentiment. Top-line macroeconomic data has not changed over the last year--at least on the surface.

 
 

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Investments in mutual funds involve risk including possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives, generate profits, or avoid losses. Each Fund invests in closed end investment companies or funds. The shares of many closed end funds, after their initial public offering, frequently trade at a price per share that is less than the net asset value per share, the difference representing the “market discount” of such shares.

 

Each Fund may be adversely affected by new (or revised) laws or regulations that may be imposed by government regulators or self-regulatory organizations that supervise the financial markets. CLO debt securities are limited recourse obligations of their issuers and may be subject to redemption. Holders of the CLO debt being redeemed will be repaid earlier than the stated maturity of the debt. The timing of redemptions may adversely affect the returns on CLO debt. The CLO manager may not find suitable assets in which to invest during the Reinvestment Period or to replace assets that the manager has determined are no longer suitable for investment.

 

The value of securities issued by the U.S. Government generally fluctuates in response to inflationary concerns and may differ in their interest rates, maturities, times of issuance and other characteristics.

 

The risk that each Fund could lose money if the issuer or guarantor of a fixed income security is unwilling or unable to make timely payments to meet its contractual obligations. The risk that foreign currencies will decline in value relative to the U.S. dollar and adversely affect the value of each Fund’s investments in foreign (non-U.S.) currencies. The derivative instruments in which each Fund may invest for hedging purposes may be more volatile than other instruments.

 

Each Fund invests in fixed income securities or derivatives, the value of your investment in each Fund will fluctuate with changes in interest rates. These risks could affect the value of a particular investment by each Fund. Investment in or exposure to high yield (lower rated) debt instruments (also known as “junk bonds”) may involve greater levels of interest rate, credit, liquidity and valuation risk than for higher rated instruments. When each Fund invests in other investment companies, including ETFs, it will bear additional expenses.

 

The risk that investment strategies employed by each Fund’s adviser in selecting investments for each Fund may not result in an increase in the value of your investment. The Adviser’s use of computer trading modeling systems may perform differently than expected as a result of the factors used in the models.

 

Duration is a bond’s sensitivity to interest rates, incorporating the embedded option features, such as call provisions. Bonds with longer durations experience greater price volatility than bonds with shorter durations.

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Quality ratings reflect the credit quality of the underlying securities in each Fund's portfolio and not that of each Fund itself. Bond ratings are assigned by a rating agency such as Standard & Poors, Moodys, Fitch, Egan Jones, KBRA, or DBRS. The ratings breakdown above utilizes ratings from all ratings agencies – depending which rating agency rated the bond deal. In the event that two rating agencies have rated the same bond deal, the higher credit rating is used. A bond rating evaluates the quality and safety of a bond, examining the issuer’s financial strength and the likelihood that it will be able to meet scheduled repayments. Ratings range from AAA (best) to D (worst). Bonds receiving a rating of BB or below are not considered investment grade because of the relative potential for issuer default.

 

ABS may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates and may results in prepayments which can include the possibility that securities with stated interest rates may have the principal prepaid earlier than expected, which may occur when interest rates may have the principal prepaid earlier than expected, which may occur when interest rates decline. Rates of prepayment faster or slower than expected could reduce each Fund's yield, increase the volatility of each Fund and/or cause a decline in NAV.

The Holbrook Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Holbrook Holdings Inc. is not affiliated with Northern Lights, Distributors, LLC.

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